HIFX,

A New Rant - For The Day!

I Have a Solution

Let the World Bank and the IMF forgive the United States Debt!

The Real FOMC Consensus Will Have to Wait for May 21st!

It appears as if the consensus is for a .25 cut from Bernanke and team this Wednesday afternoon. There are a few people echoing my pleas for the past few months that the Fed should pause - and maybe even raiserates. But the odds of that happening are pretty slim. No - the news being made today will actually have to wait until May 21st when the consensus that counts, "The Minutes" of the last two days Fed meetings are released.

A More Predictable Surprise Before the Fed Announcement?

The ADP report precursor for Friday's Non - Farm Payroll report is due out at 8:15 today - followed 15 minutes later by the US GDP report at 8:30. This GDP could be a shocker if it goes negative. The consensus for GDP growth is that the number will barely be positive and will likely be the worst GDP report in recent memory. If this does happen, it will make the Fed's job harder to decide which poison to dispense to the economy and cause more speculation ahead of the 2:15 interest rate announcement.

A Long Time Between Now and Next FOMC Meeting

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is not until June 25th! That's a long time in this current environment.... I'd bet an Amero or two that there may be a surprise between now and then that might cause a rate change between meetings - highlighting the

Dollar Dances as Core Prices Rise – Home Values Drop

So the Dollar is staging a rally and Showing Strength? Let's see the currencies are ticking wildly before the European Open.  The Euro-USD is currently ticking at 1.5578 and the Pound -Dollar is at 1.9634 - Oh Yes - Here is proof - We can take comfort in the dollar strength as it is still above parity against the Canadian Loonie! So in that respect - I agree the Dollar is in Rally Mode - Party on Garth!

"No Magic Wand To Wave" - W = Double Bottom...

President Bush was quoted today as saying that there is no magic wand to wave to bring the cost of oil down.....(I'll be nice)  How about a strong US Dollar George????  I mean Mr. President.... watching his Rose Garden press conference today was frightening - This man has no clue - Let's talk about batteries, and switch grass for a while - and Nuclear Energy as a solution in say.. 2013 - after the Mayan Calendar runs out....... (Have they ever figured out where they are going to store the nuclear waste yet?)  I'd be happier if they just tell us an asteroid the size of Montana - Not Hannah  was coming straight at us! (The distractions are crazy these days - can anyone find Obama - I mean Osama - For a few Billion Dollars - someone should be able to find him! The US wastes about  $12 Billion a Month "over there" - Please show me on What! -  or just get it Wright! )

The Interest Rates That Really Matter - Unaffected

To me - these interest rate decreases the Fed has implemented are doing nothing to help the average consumer. The US consumer that has been encouraged to support the world by spending for the past 40 years. That's right - the IRS check is in the mail - or directly deposited - So now drive to Disney World and spend some money! We will have your job back in a few decades. ( I love trading!)

No - Banks are raising not lowering interest rates on the average person that needs relief - Credit card users are being charged over 20% to 30%! That's criminal!

Buy The Amero - Now at IPO prices!

But $105 Dollar Oil looks great doesn't it! - after hitting $120!!! and $4.00 gasoline will soon look like a bargain after it spikes over $5.00 - and NAFTA is great for America - I agree - South America.....

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Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" - Also - today I will be broadcasting live coverage of the ADP - GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show!

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

US Dollar - Time For a Real Rally?

There is plenty of speculation as to what Jean Claude Trichet will do with the Euro zone's interest rates. Depending on who you listen to the ECB may move rates up, down, or keep them steady. To his credit, Trichet keeps us guessing with statements that he is concerned about inflation and slowing growth.  Hypothetically - All it would take is a clear policy statement from JCT of staying steady - or for a shock a mention of dropping rates - and the US will be able to roar back.

Pound Predictions?

Looking at the Weekly chart (above ckick to enlarge) for the Pound Sterling vs. US Dollar you can see that a Head and Shoulder pattern may be completing if price was to drop to the 1.9100 range. This would complete the right shoulder. If that happens - you will have a bounce or break off the supporting neck line. A Dollar Rally will be confirmed if this neck line is broken.

US Dollar Poking Holes in the Swiss Cheese?

The USD-CHF (above) is usually a good indicator of Dollar Direction. The chart above shows the 100 SMA has held as resistance quite well - but a solid break above that line - would have it also break above the current up trend channel. If that happens, it could signal a real Greenback rally against  the British Sterling and the Euro.

Meanwhile Back in the Darkened Gold Mines

Gold - Giving Traders the Shoulder - Heading Lower?

While Oil is posting lifetime record Highs, and the US Dollar shows a lack of direction, Gold is showing a chart pattern that might be bearish. The Daily chart of Street Tracks ETF GLD shows a Head and Shoulders Pattern with a broken neck line. The neck line coincides with the key 61.8% retracement level support level making this line quite significant if it is violated again. The 200 Period Daily SMA is currently at just about 81. GLD typically trades at 1/10th of the spot price.

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New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday and....Today Twice!

Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" - Also - register for  my live coverage of the GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show!

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

Last week the Central Banks of England, Australia, and the Euro zone held rates steady - as expected. The US Trade Balance contracted to -$58.2 Billion according to the latest numbers released on Friday.

Most of the "Majors" closed the week just about where they started - except for the Yen which saw continued strength.

This Week

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the "Week Ahead"  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry's Watch List - US News for May 12 - 16 (in Brief)

Jerry's Watch List - International News for May 12 - 16 (in Brief)

Technically Speaking - Looking at the Charts

Focus on the EURO - US Dollar - (Click on the Charts  to Enlarge)

The 4 hour chart above shows the Euro retracing. A new downward trend channel has developed and an interesting point is that as of this posting, is that the Euro is approaching resistance at the top of the trend channel. 

The Daily chart below shows a strong support line going back to August. 

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Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show!

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

Gasoline Prices Down 2% and other Government "Statistics"

There’s No Inflation – Everything is Fine…

The pundits seem happy to shrug their shoulders and accept the lies the government keeps pushing. Recently Glenn Beck on CNN showed actual  proof of what the true inflation numbers should be -according to Shadow Government Statistics or SGS.

No Conspiracy Theories Here

it makes perfect sense, according to John Williams who runs SGS  and the Glenn Beck show interview  The US government has modified the formulas and calculations for very good reasons. Social Security, Welfare, and even the Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS)  are adjusted to keep pace with inflation. By keeping the "official rate of inflation" down - the payments saved are tremendous - at the expense of people living on fixed incomes and those buying TIPS. .

Chart above from Shadow Government Statistics

shows that current inflation if calculated by formulas and methods in 1982 would have been over 11.6%! Using revised calculations before 1998 inflation would be at approximately  7.3%! The current calculation methods state that inflation is at 4.0%. This still does not explain how the government reported that gasoline prices declined 2% in April...

40 pip Spike on the CPI News

The US Dollar reaction to the CPI numbers took the Euro from 1.5440 to 1.5480 in a few minutes – The Pound also gained about 40 pips from 1.9420 to 1.9460 - and 90 minutes later gave back most of the gains.

Tune In to Live Webinar's - Broadcast Free - on FX Street

New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday

Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show!

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network(IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.